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When looking at the bitcoin supply, it is important to consider the condition of the float supply, an estimate of the bitcoin available in the market for sale. One way to estimate the float is to look at the short-term holder’s supply plus the supply balance on exchanges in total and as a percentage of circulating supply. If you add long-term holder supply to these two, the supply is almost identical to circulating supply.
The current floating supply is 5.52 million bitcoin worth $ 317 billion at today’s market price. But we know that any significant bid to take the bitcoin float off the market could cause the price to rise, all else being equal, and increase the USD market value of each new bid.
The estimated float supply is now at 29.31% of circulating supply, which has fallen from 49% at the peak of the 2018 cycle and 41% at the peak of all-time highs in March 2021. This is the lowest level of floating supply over the last four years, since January 2017, when the price went to 21x in just 12 months.
The float supply also peaks with the peak of the bull cycle near 50% as long-term holders flood the market with more bitcoin and take profits. In line with price increases, we will see a similar activity for 2018 with float supply increasing as some long-term holders take profits by moving bitcoin to short-term holders until the purchase is exhausted.