During this time of pandemic recovery, a number of tent poles have returned to cinemas. The biggest of 2021, however, has been saved eventually with Spider-Man: No Way Home ready to make its long-awaited domestic debut exclusively in theaters on December 17th.
Following the detailed outlook below, our public forecasts now include too Nightmare alley (opening the same weekend), as well as December 10th West Side Story and National champions.
Aside from any significant developments in advance, our next public update of all of these forecasts will be reported on December 3rd.
Spider-Man: No Way Home
Sony & Columbia Pictures / Marvel Studios
December 17, 2021 (North America)
- As an exclusive cinema release with a full compliment of IMAX and other Premium Large Format screens at its disposal, No way home is intended as the event release of the holiday season – and without a doubt the most productive since December 2019 Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker.
- After the record-breaking box office performance of Avengers: Endgame in early 2019 was the first character to lead Marvel Cinematic Universe fans into the next era, Peter Parker / Spider-Man this summer Far from home sequel, which is taken up immediately after the events of the end of Infinity Saga. Home‘s own ending left a large cliffhanger dangling, driving the anticipation of Spidey’s next pass.
- In addition, the MCU has since firmly introduced the multiverse concept across multiple movies and streaming series – setting the stage for what is undoubtedly an important plot point for several upcoming Marvel stories, in particular No way home, and postalPlayoffs era.
- Home‘s first teaser trailer was hugely well-received, generating 355.5 million global views in its first 24-hour release, according to distributor Sony. The study also reports that it broke down Playoffs‘s own record of 289 million within the comparable time frame, while doubling Far from home‘s 135 million views.
- At the time, the teaser trailer also generated more than 4.5 million reviews on its first full day, according to Sony. Since then, social media chats have only continued to build momentum with intense speculation about the multiverse as well as confirmed and potential crossover characters expected to emerge in No way home.
- Our internal models indicate the film’s sentiment rankings, and the total mention volume is on the way ahead of all releases since The Rise of Skywalker and Playoffs.
- The promise of confirmed villains from the past Spider Man movies that were not put in the MCU have electrified fan expectation. The return of fan favorites, as well as MCU’s own Doctor Strange (Benedict Cumberbatch) in a seemingly significant role, only intensifies interest among both die-hards and casual viewers.
- market-wise, No way home enters a landscape that would have been without a real tent pole release in close to a month (Sony’s own Ghostbusters: Afterlife on 19 November).
- In line with pandemic factors, COVID-19 vaccines for children between 5 and 12 have been approved and are rolling out steadily. Health authorities estimate that more than 2 million children may be fully vaccinated by Christmas time, where this film will still be in the middle of its stride across the long holiday corridor in the second half of December.
It’s an important part of the Spider-Man brand’s four-quadrant audience, as the foundation of the franchise, in its many versions, has driven consistently strong blockbuster runs over the past two decades.
- In addition to the family’s audience strength, Spidey films are traditionally distorted in the world of comics – something that proved to help Venom: Let there be carnage wildly exceeded expectations in October. E.g, Far from home drew an audience 58 percent under the age of 25 (and 60 percent men) versus Playoffss 39 percent under-25 and 57 percent male split. The former Married the successor pulled 55 percent under 25 and 62 percent men.
- While December used to be better known for longer ticket offices and never for nine-digit opening weekend numbers Star wars franchise reversed this narrative with all four of its December releases between 2015 and 2019, each opening between $ 155 million (Rogue one) and $ 248 million (The power is aroused).
- For most of 2021, this film has been the top contender seen as a potential event release that could bring back a large portion of the pre-pandemic film audience, including those who have not returned to theaters prior to release. As such, forecast models are incredibly volatile due to the continuing challenge of measuring interest in relation to the actual intention to purchase tickets (which will not go on sale until November 29).
- While it is unlikely to dampen enthusiasm, star Tom Holland’s recent implications for the film’s tone are at least worth considering in terms of endurance and audience reception. The Marvel brand typically knows how to deliver an audience pleaser, even with challenging and mature themes in play, but this is an element worth keeping in mind when projecting long-term box office prowess.
- It is still unknown how much of the family audience is willing to return to the cinemas on the way to winter, as children between 5 and 12 have only just begun to receive vaccinations.
Long Range Box Office Forecast & 2021 Calendar
(as of 19/11/21)
|Release date||Title||3-day (FSS) opening low / high range||Determine% change from last week||Domestic total low / high range||Determine% change from last week||Estimated number of placements||Distributor|
|24/11/2021||Charm||$ 20,000,000 – $ 35,000,000||$ 75,000,000 – $ 135,000,000||3,800||Walt Disney pictures|
|24/11/2021||For love of money||600||Freestyle release|
|24/11/2021||House of Gucci||$ 8,000,000 – $ 13,000,000||+15%||$ 30,000,000 – $ 65,000,000||+15%||3,400||MGM / United Artists release|
|24/11/2021||Resident Evil: Welcome to Raccoon City||$ 6,000,000 – $ 10,000,000||-11%||$ 17,000,000 – $ 30,000,000||-11%||2,600||Sony Pictures / Columbia Pictures|
|10/12/2021||Do not look up||Netflix|
|10/12/2021||National champions||$ 5,000,000 – $ 10,000,000||$ 17,000,000 – $ 42,000,000||STX movie|
|10/12/2021||West Side Story (2020)||$ 14,000,000 – $ 22,000,000||$ 55,000,000 – $ 85,000,000||Disney / 20th Century Studios|
|17/12/2021||Nightmare alley||$ 3,000,000 – $ 7,000,000||$ 10,000,000 – $ 22,000,000||Disney / Spotlight pictures|
|17/12/2021||Spider-Man: No Way Home||$ 135,000,000 – $ 185,000,000||$ 375,000,000 – $ 525,000,000||Sony / Columbia / Marvel Studios|
|22/12/2021||The King’s Man||Disney / 20th Century Studios|
|22/12/2021||The Matrix Resurrection||Warner Bros. Pictures|
|22/12/2021||Sing 2||Universal images|
|25/12/2021||A Journal for Jordan||Sony Pictures / Columbia Pictures|
|25/12/2021||American Underdog: The Kurt Warner Story||Lionsgate / Kingdom Story Company|
|31/12/2021||(no releases planned)|
All of the above figures represent the best and worst case scenarios for how each film is currently being tracked based on existing market conditions and expected model fluctuations prior to release. These are not final forecasts.
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