Temperatures will plunge before the storm hits the region; forecast uncertain

Weather

Suzanne Kreiter / Globe Staff

Olivia Wyatt, left, and Hannah Loss enjoyed a cup of hot chocolate outdoors on Columbus Ave. in the South End despite the cold temperature. Suzanne Kreiter / Globe Staff

January lives up to its reputation for busy weather this year.

Over the next few days we are going to see two weather events, one just a cold explosion and the other a strong storm.

Speaking of storms: We’re going to miss a major ocean storm on Friday as it passes hundreds of miles east of New England. It will come close enough to bring some rain and eventually snow showers to the Cape and the islands on Friday and there may be a minor accumulation. It’s not impossible for Boston to see a snowstorm tomorrow, but instead of giving us significant rainfall, this storm will usher in yet another explosion of Arctic air.

A major ocean storm passes a good distance east of New England on Friday, heralding cold air behind it. – Tropical treats

As the storm draws into eastern Canada, a strong current of cold, dry conditions will envelop New England. Unlike the cold at the beginning of the week, which had only a little wind, this cold is going to bring a lot of wind. I actually think the wind chill values ​​are likely to be lower on Saturday than at the beginning of the week. Temperatures during the afternoon on Saturday will remain in the range of 10 degrees in the coldest areas, reaching the mid-teens in Boston and pointing south.

Highlights on Saturday reach only the teens in Greater Boston. – NOAA

Along with the wind, you should expect it to feel below zero most, if not all day. In the morning, some areas could see wind cooling readings at 15 min., And a wind cooling advice may be needed.

Bitter cold wind chill values ​​are going to occur Saturday morning. – Weather clock

Temperatures will drop to the single digits Saturday night and recover to the 20s Sunday – still below the average for the season. It is this cold air that will be in place for our next storm system on Monday.

This is a long-distance storm. In other words, its origins in Canada will allow it to produce precipitation from the Dakotas all the way into New England. The map below shows the current forecast track for the storm, but keep in mind that the forecast may fluctuate significantly as we approach Monday. These snow numbers may be dramatically incorrect so far away from a storm, but it gives you an idea of ​​the potential of the areas that see all the snow.

A storm dive south from Dakotas will bring snow and rain to New England on Monday. – Tropical treats

As the storm approaches New England, the exact trail will be critical. If the storm were to take one more inland, we would have a rapid transition to rain along the coast, including Boston, with not very significant snowfall. If the storm takes a more easterly track and allows cold air to stay in place longer, the chances of significant snowfall for Greater Boston increase. Currently, I lean more towards a snowstorm inland and mountains rather than one along the coast. That does not mean that between now and Monday, the track will not change, which would mean more snow for Boston. As they say, stay tuned.

The reliability of the weather forecast is increasing with each passing day and we will definitely have a better idea this weekend about what to expect for Martin Luther King, Jr., Day.

The exact trace of the MLK day storm will determine the precipitation type for the region. – Tropical treats

Daily local weather forecast

  • Today
    January 13th


    Intermittent clouds

    Intermittent clouds

    46 °
    33 °

  • fre
    January 14th


    Rain to snow

  • Sat.
    January 15th


    Cold

  • Sun
    January 16th


    Sunny

  • you
    January 17th


    Rain to snow

  • tir
    January 18th


    Partly sunny

  • us
    January 19th


    Mostly cloudy

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