BOSTON (CBS) – Some snow is on its way to the morning shuttle on Thursday, and Saturday’s coastal storm is getting a better overview.
After a mild day on Wednesday, a cold front is penetrating here late Wednesday night and there will probably be some light snow on the back of this border.
The precipitation will begin as a brief period of rain around the Massachusetts Turnpike and areas south after midnight. As temperatures continue to drop, all rain will change to snow from north to south in the early morning hours of Thursday.
3 to 5 in the morning: mix of rain and snow scattering the area, rain within (east) of I-95, snow to the northwest
5 to 7 in the morning: the rain / snow line moves south to around Plymouth, constant snow as far north as the boundary between Mass./NH, untreated roads turn white / slippery
7 to 9:00: rain / snow line now all the way down through Cape, snowing light to moderate as far north as around Route 495, only scattered showers northwest of 495 and Pike
9 to 11:00: the snow shield slides to the south and at. 11 a.m. the northern outskirts stretch from Boston to Providence, snowing steadily and still accumulating in the southeast Mass., All done north of Pike
11:00 to 13:00: the snow moves out at 13:00, only Cape Cod and the islands are still snowing, and at. 14.00 are all finished.
The total accumulation Thursday morning is expected to be a 2-inch pavement from about 495 (northwest of Boston) down through the Cape and the islands. There is cold as much as 3 inches in a few areas south of Boston in Plymouth and Bristol counties.
Friday is a very cold day with a stiff wind from the sea. The cold air flowing over the relatively mild Atlantic Ocean can provide a light snowfall with garden effect over parts of the southeastern Mass. on Friday. Expect not much more than scattered pavements here and there, mostly across Plymouth County.
Then our attention turns to another coastal storm heading east this Saturday. A low-pressure wave will form at the end of Thursday’s cold front down in the Gulf of Mexico. It will ride up over the southeastern United States and show up off the Carolina Late Friday. While some models try to deepen this system and pull it north toward New England, the vast majority show a relatively weak and flat wave gliding well south from here early Saturday.
With the storm track likely further south than what is optimal for a good New England snowstorm, the best chance of seeing accumulating snow on Saturday would be over the southeastern Mass.
As of this writing, I will be giving about a 25 percent chance of plowing (3 inches or more) snow down over extreme Southeast Masses Saturday morning. Odds drop significantly north and west of Boston.
Whatever happens on Saturday, next week looks very cold, perhaps the coldest week of the entire season. If you rummage for snow, I can only say that there is plenty of time left on the clock. Hold tight.