Saturday AM Update: Despite the worst reviews for a Marvel movie and a B CinemaScore, the second weekend of Disney / Marvel’s Eternal did not implode, now heading for a -62% weekend, which is at the high end of where we expected it with $ 27.4 million. The image earned $ 7.8 million yesterday, -75%. For ten days, the Chloe Zhao-directed film will stand at an estimated level $ 118.7 million.
Meanwhile, Paramount / eOne’s Clifford the Great Red Dog, seems to clear $ 20 million in five days, which is best for the $ 15M- $ 17M studio spotted, and that’s with the movie on Paramount +. The 3-day on the Walt Becker directed children’s film is $ 14.5 million After one $ 4.2 million Friday. The film is on an exclusive cinema window in Canada, and unlike Paramount’s release of Paw Patrol, has Regal as part of its 3,700 theaters.
Disney CEO Bob Chapek does not have a dog in this box office with him Clifford, but has a studio that is a leader in family products, and thus has the power and leverage to determine how the industry releases movies in the future. Earlier this week during Disney’s Q4 earnings call, Chapek expressed that the conglomerate is sticking to a flexible theater / Disney + distribution plan in the near future because “we are still unsure how the marketplace will react when family films return with a theatrical first window. “
I’ll call BS on it. It’s OK that the theme parks are open under COVID (which doubled revenue to $ 5.45 billion in Q4), but are families hesitant to go to the cinema? I do not buy it. The box numbers are proof that there is an audience out there for family numbers, and if Clifford could manage close to $ 20M in five days, we know it could have done more without Paramount +. Even Disney / 20th Century Studios’ Ron has gone wrong, which was a sip in its opening weekend with $ 7.3 million, sees solid teams: after a fall of 4.6% last weekend in weekend 3, where the film fell -40% in its current weekend 4 with $ 2.1 million, increases its total $ 20.6 million; and it’s a niche family movie. The Biden administration announced earlier this week that close to 1 million children aged 5 to 11 have already received their first Covid shot within its first week of eligibility with an additional 700,000 appointments reserved for those to receive their first dose. The figures are based on 20,000 pharmacies and clinics. All of this bodes well for Thanksgiving and the Christmas closing at the end of the year.
What I need to emphasize here is that November after Eternal, and after a whopping $ 638M. October during the pandemic, which was amplified with summer event films, it will not really dazzle at the box office, not before Sony / Marvel / Disney’s Spider-Man: No Way Home, and it’s all because of the product. I know it sounds like I’m repeating myself, but it’s something worth revealing, because every time there’s a misfire or a lack of roughness, the fear is that the studios (or Disney) will use it as an excuse to go hybrid. Disney has Charm comes to Thanksgiving, and what’s important to remember is that original animated films are a challenge to launch. Disney’s original animated film Charm is currently expected to earn $ 37M- $ 40M in five, but is likely to go out. But just because it is smaller IP, there is no need to close the window together. Wealth is in the long run through windows, not just the collapse of marketing costs.
“While Covid will be in the rearview mirror if God wills, I think changes in consumer behavior will be more permanent,” Chapek added earlier this week, “I do not exactly agree with that; I think it’s more about Disney missing out on their subscriber numbers, which caused their stock to tumble 10% from $ 176.87 at the end of Monday to $ 159.63 at the close of Friday, and that’s because of the backlog in their production series. Disney in Lucasfilm, Marvel, Pixar, etc. have brands that are envied by the whole city. Disney must be careful not to dilute it. If you make a movie available in both homes and cinemas at the same time, then what is the high value of it? Did Black widow trigger more sign-ups than the availability of Labor Day cinema release Shang-Chi this weekend at Disney +? Or is it better to ask the question: Will binge the Marvel series Hawkeye and Lucasfilms The book about Boba Fett which is exclusively on Disney + this holiday season and not in cinemas, encourages more subscriptions? Exclusivity, whether theatrical or just Disney +, are the respective drivers for both media. Disney will get their stock back up. I do not think it’s down because of keeping their movies in a movie theater window, they just need more new products at Disney + and it will definitely come. But in the meantime, do not burn the Museum House down to keep warm.
Meanwhile, Focus Features’ black-and-white Kenneth Branagh movie Belfast puts solid numbers up in art houses with $ 1.63 million at 580 cinemas in 126 markets. Friday earned $ 640K, which is higher than Focus’ opening day That Card counter which posted a $ 422K Friday and $ 1M opening weekend on 580 sites. Good numbers here in NYC, LA, Toronto Vancouver, Montreal, Philly, Denver and San Francisco. AMC Lincoln Square in NYC is clearly the best gross in the country with an estimated $ 6K on Friday night. Like last year’s awards season film, their prestige will be judged solely on their cinematic merit, not predetermined by the box office. Among team overs: Spotlight The French broadcast in 1,225 cinemas with a weekend 4 of $ 1.7 million, -32% with a current total of $ 11.5 million and NEONs Spencer, also in the top 10 with another weekend on $ 1.59 million, -24% due to an expansion of 269 cinemas to 1,265, for a total of 10 days $ 4.7 million.
1.) Eternal (Dis) 4,090 theaters, fre $ 7.8 million (-75%) / 3-day $ 27.4 million (-62%) / total: $ 118.7 million/ Wk 2
2.) Clifford the Great Red Dog (Par / eOne) 3,700 theaters, Fri. $ 4.2 million/3 days $ 14.5 million/Total $ 20 million/ Wk 1
3.) Dune (WB) 3,282 (-264) theater, fre $ 1.62 million (-29%) / 3-day $ 5.6 million (-28%) / Total $ 93.2 million/ Wk 4
4.) No time to die (UAR) 2,867 (-140) theater, fre $ 1.4 million (-23%) / 3-day $ 4.6 million (-23%), in total: $ 150.5 million/ Wk 6
5.) Venom: Let there be carnage (Sony) 2,538 (-102) theater, fre $ 1 million (-14%) / 3-day $ 3.7 million (-15%) / Total $ 202.4 million/ Week 7
6.) Ron has gone wrong (Dis / 20.) 2.430 (-220) theater, fre $ 533,000 (-36%) / 3 days $ 2.1 million (-40%) / Total $ 20.6 million/ Wk 4
7.) The French broadcast (Sea) 1,225 (+20) theaters fri $ 538,000 (-35%) / 3 days $ 1.7 million (-32%) / Total $ 11.5 million/ Wk 4
8.) Belfast (Uni) 580 cinemas free $ 640K / 3-day $ 1.6 million/ Wk 1
9.) Spencer (NEON) 1,265 (+269) theater, fre $ 483,000 (-38%) / 3-day $ 1.59 million (-24%) / total: $ 4.7 million/ Wk 2
10.) Antlers (Hav) 1,825 (-975) theaters, fre $ 337,000 (-45%) / 3 days $ 1.1 million (-44%), Total $ 9.5 million/ Wk 3
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