Odds, Northern Trust selection in 2021: The best bets from the field include Rory McIlroy, Hideki Matsuyama | MCUTimes

Odds, Northern Trust selection in 2021: The best bets from the field include Rory McIlroy, Hideki Matsuyama

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It’s time for the FedEx Cup Playoffs, which means there are seemingly endless glances at a variety of bets you can make for the first of three events that conclude the 2020-21 PGA Tour season.

My formula all year has been a combination of the latest tee-to-green form (last two months or last 20 rounds), loose history on a given course and most top 10s and top 20s over matchups and winners. That was also what I stayed with this week, and as the season has gone on, I have reduced the number of tickets I have out there. This is mostly selfish – I do not want to track 29 Sunday scenarios – but it has also worked for the most part and makes final kicks more fun.

With the long prelude, here are the four bets I like for The Northern Trust at Liberty National Golf Club. All numbers are polite by Caesars Sportsbook.

Rory McIlroy top 20 (+110): McIlroy’s fights are always (always!) Overblown. He’s further than even the odds of ending up in the top 20, which he has done in seven out of eight regular PGA Tour event games this season (non-major and non-player). Even when he did not have his best things early on at WGC-FedEx St. Jude Invitational a few weeks ago in Memphis, he closed to finish T12. I’m not afraid of the talent level in this field this week because almost every tournament he plays has this talent level. He completed T6 here in 2019 when The Northern Trust was last held at Liberty National.

Rick Gehman is joined by Kyle Porter and Jonathan Coachman to see an example of The Northern Trust at Liberty National. Follow and listen to The First Cut on Apple Podcasts and Spotify.

Hideki Matsuyama top 20 (+160): I’m actually glad he missed the cut last week because I think it provides a little more value than it normally would. Matsuyama’s tee-to-green numbers over his last 20 rounds are a joke. He wins 2.25 strokes per. Round from tee to green. Only Jon Rahm has been better at 3.0 (!). Matsuyama has also been the worst putter by anyone in the top 40 from tee to green in the same time period. He is absolute beat it right now and I’m hoping for a jump after the MC at the Wyndham Championship. In a four-round event, a top 25 or so appears to be his floor (he has been T26 or better in five of his last seven events where he has made the cut).

Sergio Garcia top 20 (+300): I’m going back to the well again! The numbers are absolutely overwhelming. Garcia has been on a terrible run from tee to green. Just washes it all over the planet and he has lived on that top-20 mark because he can not roll it into the Grand Canyon. He has been T26 or better in each of his last six events.

Harris English about Bryson DeChambeau (+100): In their last four similar events, English has cut him in three of them, including two weeks ago when they played together in the final pair at TPC Southwind. Only Jordan Spieth and Rahm have been better from tee to green than English have been over their last 20 rounds. DeChambeau ranks 12th in that category. I also think the finish in Memphis will affect them quite differently. I can see DeChambeau coming in tired and weary, while I can see English coming in energetically about potentially making his first Ryder Cup team and motivated by a lousy back nine at TPC Southwind.

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